By Sam Kiley, Foreign Affairs Editor
Two men, successive commanders of the Special Air Service, gave the same advice to their superiors.
One even drove the length of Helmand in an unarmoured Land Rover to seek out the truth.
The first to conduct the reconnaissance, in late 2005, met with tribal elders, drug khans and ordinary farmers, and reported back with these words: "There isn't an insurgency in Helmand - but we can give you one."
The next, who also toured the southern Afghan province where opium farmers quietly produced some 70% of the world's heroin base, came back more specific advice.
He told the Ministry of Defence the military estimate of a light brigade of about 3,000 men was only just adequate to secure a British presence in one town, Lashkagar.
"Anything beyond that risked sparking a conflict that we had no way to control," the former SAS commander said.
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Gallery: Life In Camp Bastion
Soldiers from 2nd Royal Tank Regiment relax in transit accommodation as they prepare to leave Camp Bastion in Helmand Province, Afghanistan after a gruelling six month tour
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British troops cross themselves during prayer as they stand at ease on the parade square at Camp 501, Camp Bastion
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The coffin containing the body of British Army soldier L/cpl Paul "Sandy" Sandford is carried by his fellow soldiers during his repatriation ceremony
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Troops from various regiments including Sandford's, the Worcestershire and Sherwood Foresters Regiment held a repatriation ceremony for the British soldier killed in action on 6 June, 2007
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British soldiers play a game of Scrabble as they watch the live broadcast of the Royal wedding
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Soldiers wait to talk to then Chancellor Gordon Brown, with a cross in the foreground - part of a monument in the memory of fallen comrades
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Merlin Pilot Wing Commander Nigel Colman Officer Commanding 78 Squadron sits at the back of a Merlin at Camp Bastion
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Troops observe the minute's silence at Camp Bastion during a special Armistice Day Parade on the 93rd anniversary of the end of the First World War
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Lieutenant Chris Millen, serving with 2nd Royal Tank Regiment, relaxes in his bedspace in transit accommodation as he prepares leave Camp Bastion
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Capt Robbie Robertson (left) and Capt Olly Denning spar at Camp Bastion
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Troops from 1st The Queen's Dragoon Guards with a Scimitar tank
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Trooper Ben Rakestrow (right), 21, from Egypt squadron, 2nd Royal Tank Regiment, sits on his rather colourful bedspread with friends in transit accommodation at Camp Bastion
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Royal Military Police (RMP) as they clear their vehicle and its shelter of snow following a rare snow shower
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British soldier Jamie Anderson lifts weights as he passes time at Camp Bastion
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A British soldier controls the ball during a football match as comrades (background), and an Afghan National Army soldier, right, look on during a football training session at Camp Bastion
Smarting from the failure to secure Basra in southern Iraq, senior British officers appeared to both SAS bosses as anxious to recover the forces reputation but blind to the potential costs and the resources kicking the Helmand hornet's nest would need.
It was kicked in 2006. Within weeks of their deployment in Helmand many in 16th Air Assault Brigade were fighting in Forward Operating Bases for their lives.
In Musa Qala, Now Zad, Sangin and along a chain of 'platoon houses', units came close to being overrun and massacred.
Besieged for weeks that stretched into months, they ran perilously close to running out of food, water and ammunition.
The landscape beyond their walls was torn and smashed by wave upon wave of airstrikes against insurgents.
This set the pattern for the next three years.
Tough infantry fighting gave ample opportunity for winning medals and the testing of British fighting spirit. It did nothing for the lives of Helmandis but bring violence.
The troops loved it. The media, myself among them, loved it too. But it was, in the end, entirely fruitless, expensive, bloody and the result of military hubris.
Too few troops were sent, too lightly armed, without sufficient helicopters to do the job.
Proof of this is that by 2010 the province was so angry that about 40,000 troops, 30,000 of them American, were fighting across Helmand and peace was brought to none of it.
As NATO forces have been withdrawn large chunks of the province have already slipped away from limited government control. Musa Qala and Now Zad have gone, Afghan troops are hanging on to a small base in Sangin.
And the drug khans are enjoying an unprecedented boom. Opium revenues are up by a third this year to $3bn.
Now the Union flag has been lowered, and the last troops pulled out of Camp Bastion, Helmand is to be left to the Afghans to deal with.
NATO's boot is being pulled out of the nest. Let's hope the hornets go back to it.
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