In The Margins: Crucial Election Battlegrounds

Written By Unknown on Senin, 05 Januari 2015 | 20.48

Sky's Joey Jones is travelling the country looking at the issues that matter to voters in some of the marginal constituencies.

Here he focuses on 11 of the 150 seats that could play a deciding role in May's General Election.

:: Glasgow East

Scotland feels like uncharted territory politically at the moment. The polls are suggesting an unprecedented SNP breakthrough, and a cataclysmic result for Labour.

I went to Glasgow East because people in this constituency have a history of voting SNP (the nationalists won a by-election in 2008), but Labour beat them back with a thumping win in 2010 and defeat would seem, based on previous wisdom, to be unthinkable.

Read Faisal Islam's exclusive interview with Lord O'Donnell here

The constituency is not uniform tower blocks and concrete by any means, but Easterhouse, where I spoke to people, is the sort of area you would traditionally expect people to vote Labour or not vote at all.

The conversations I had reflected an electorate that is definitely thinking of switching to the SNP mainly because of disenchantment with Labour.

Perhaps most worryingly for Ed Miliband and Jim Murphy, there was not much of a sense among local people that a vote either way would make a massive difference to their lives. The key task for the new Labour leader in Scotland is to reverse that perception.

:: Sutton and Cheam

Sutton and Cheam is a traditionally Conservative seat that has been held by Paul Burstow of the Liberal Democrats since 1997.

At every election since then it has been in the Conservatives' sights. It was one of the seats I travelled to with David Cameron during the 2010 campaign, and at that time the Tories felt reasonably confident of success.

Based on the Liberal Democrats' collapse in support in the current parliament, one might imagine that in 2015 the seat would finally fall.

But Lord Ashcroft's most recent polling shows a swing of 7% from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems, a barely believable situation given the Lib Dems' current predicament.

We often talk about how the Lib Dems manage to "dig in" in seats like this, and I wanted to ask local people what that actually means from their point of view. When we talk of the effect of incumbency, what does that mean for voters?

What came through is that a concentration on local issues, a lot of hard work, and the ability to forge what feels to voters a personal connection creates a bond that even a collapse in national support for the Liberal Democrats may not erode significantly.

But to be honest, if it were as simple as that then a lot more hardworking MPs might manage to withstand national trends than do. It's as though there's a sort of alchemy at play that frankly I have yet to put my finger on.

:: Brighton Pavilion

The impact of the Green Party in May 2015 may be felt more in seats other than Brighton, their initial beachhead.

It would definitely be a blow for Labour if they fail to retake the seat Caroline Lucas won in 2010, but the real fear in Labour HQ is that the Greens may have the sort of effect on Labour that we always used to assume UKIP would have on the Tories - sucking away enough of the voters they had imagined would support them and thereby handing their opponents victory.

I went to Brighton itself because I wanted to know how people who have had experience of Green politicians in power (the Greens are also in the majority on the council) would advise voters elsewhere who are now considering voting Green.

There has been a lot of talk that council incompetence and mismanagement has created a backlash against the Greens. I specifically sought out people who had voted Green to see if there is any sense of disenchantment, and found none. Every individual I spoke to said they would vote Green again.

Not so long ago the idea the Greens could be a significant factor in the election could have been readily dismissed, but given the unprecedented support for UKIP and the SNP and the volatility of the current situation, nothing should be ruled out.

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:: Southampton Itchen

Southampton Itchen was a close-run thing for Labour in 2010.

The long-serving MP John Denham won by less than 200 votes. Now he is standing down, and Labour's vulnerability in the south of England as demonstrated in local elections gives the Tories grounds for hope. It is a must-hold seat for Labour - the party cannot afford to be losing seats at all.

If Ed Miliband is to become Prime Minister, they need to be winning new seats, not worrying about shoring up ground they already hold.

I went to the broadly working class Thornhill Estate to see what people think of Mr Miliband (not much, it seems), and how resilient support for the party is.

The news for Labour was bad. There is a real flirtation with UKIP going on here, but it could have been worse. There was no great enthusiasm for the Conservatives either. In short, Labour should be worried, but not panicked.

:: Hendon

The Tories hold Hendon by 100 votes. It is the sort of seat Labour have to win, and probably will.

A couple of things interested me here. There has been a lot of talk about the Conservatives' difficulties in attracting black and ethnic minority voters.

Hendon is an ethnically diverse seat and I asked people who were black or from another ethnic minority whether they would ever consider voting Tory.

Every person I spoke to said no, almost in a heartbeat. The only good news for CCHQ is that when I asked why they would not, the answers were generally unspecific - there was a lot of "I just wouldn't".

That suggests that if people could be jolted into having a second look at the party, there is room for progress - Boris Johnson managed this, and won votes in this very area in the mayoral election that his party failed to match in the London assembly elections.

It doesn't look like anything along those lines will happen in 2015 though, which leaves the sitting Conservative MP Matthew Offord with a mountain to climb.

:: Watford

Watford looks like it will be a nail-biter right to the wire.

All three main parties are in with a shout (and UKIP are not way behind either).

This was the only seat where I chose to speak to candidates, as I was interested in how such an unpredictable campaign might play out.

Much of what the three candidates said was very familiar: Labour talking cost of living; the Tories on the economy; and Lib Dems on their local record (their candidate, the mayor, pointed out that the Liberal Democrats had jumped in the most recent Lord Ashcroft polling, subsequent to her candidacy being announced).

My suspicion based on speaking to voters all over the UK is that the excitement of the Westminster class at such a close race will not be matched by similar enthusiasm among voters.

Generally people are very grumpy about mainstream politicians, and there is every chance that the parties will feel obliged to try to play on that disenchantment and channel it to their own purposes - whatever the candidates' best efforts to avoid negative campaigning, the current political environment dictates that knocking chunks off one's Westminster opponents is not just tempting, it is an imperative.

:: Birmingham Edgbaston

Incumbency is the word that gives hope to MPs who are fearful of being swept away in this most turbulent of political environments.

It suggests there is an elusive quality that can allow sitting MPs to hold back apparently irresistible forces.

Gisela Stuart is a case in point, having beaten off the Tory challenge in Birmingham Edgbaston time and again since 1997. Politicians of all parties view her as an example of how one individual's force of personality can overcome the odds - so much so that you would be hard pressed now to find a political commentator optimistic she will be beaten in 2015 even in what demographics would suggest should be a pretty straightforward Conservative seat.

I met her during the usual flurry of Friday (constituency day) engagements and she explained how a successful MP will want to mould hard work into a more enduring project. If they don't, she warns, the voters will be unforgiving.

:: Cardiff North

The rise of UKIP, unprecedented SNP support and the growing confidence of the Green party make many more seats far harder to call in the past, but straight Labour/Tory marginals like Cardiff North will still point the way to Downing Street for either Ed Miliband or David Cameron.

Neither man will have a significant chance of forging a Commons majority if their party is not winning bellwether seats like this.

I was interested to see how national issues are playing out at the local level. On the NHS Mr Cameron is caustic about the Welsh Labour government's handling of the NHS - talking to people heading into Heath hospital, that approach did not seem to be doing him any favours.

A good number of the people I spoke to were public sector workers who might not be inclined to vote Tory anyway, but it was notable that the PM had really got their backs up. Senior Tories in Wales have told me they fear the aggressive language directed at the Welsh NHS might be counterproductive, and that seemed to be borne out by the people I spoke to.

On another issue, public spending cuts, the picture is much more mixed. Everybody I met outside Whitchurch Library wanted to talk about its possible closure, the result of financial pressures. But blame was not apportioned by local people only one way by any means.

Some blamed the government, but there was just as much criticism for the Labour council, and a feeling that belt-tightening was unavoidable. The closure of much-loved local services might normally be expected to offer an opposition party an easy win - not so in this case at least.

:: Taunton Deane

If David Cameron is to become Prime Minister, he needs to profit from the collapse in Lib Dem support and that means winning seats like Taunton Deane. In October 2014 his task got easier when the sitting MP Jeremy Browne said he was standing down.

To get a sense of what a blow his departure is for the Liberal Democrats, you only have to speak to people on the street. The level of recognition for the MP was, in my opinion, fairly remarkable. A significant majority of the people I spoke to knew their MP by name. Given that half the time when we go out on the street with pictures of the party leaders and encounter blank faces all round, this represents sterling work by the Lib Dem incumbent.

All in all, with a very slim majority, you would have to put your money on the Tories here now, but I would say that the people of Taunton seemed remarkably politically engaged. I suspect any candidate that expects them to fall into his or her lap will have another thing coming. They will need wooing!

:: Exeter

Change is a big underlying theme of this election, and it is the reason I went to Exeter. One of the big drivers of UKIP success is people's resistance to change - particularly when it comes to immigration, but also things like insecurity in work, global forces that seem to have little connection to people's lives and in some cases a longing to go back to a time when things felt more straightforward.

Exeter has changed a lot. Every time I go back to see my family I see more building, more people, more cars on the road. Some streets that I remember as thriving shopping centres are deserted; others are bursting with activity.

My assumption was that local people might feel uncomfortable with change but - I hold my hands up - my conversations suggest I was wrong.

In this boom town, most people seem to feel that they have an investment in the city's success. From people on the street to business owners, the overall mood was of unaccustomed optimism compared with what I encountered in other parts of the country.

There was the odd grumble and gripe, but if bad traffic is the worst people have to complain about, there is not all that much traction for UKIP to work with. The only other potential complicating factor is if the Greens come into play.

Broadly, though, the chances are that Exeter will remain a Labour/Tory fight - and given boundary changes have broadly helped the Labour incumbent, the task is a difficult one for the Conservatives.

:: Great Grimsby

Great Grimsby shows the protean nature of the UKIP threat. Not so long ago - honestly, it was not that long - conventional wisdom was that UKIP was a gift for Labour because it sucked votes from the Tories, allowing them to win seats where they might otherwise have struggled.

Now in Grimsby UKIP is damaging the Tories all right, but what was not in the script is that the party has Labour in its sights, and a serious chance of winning.

The picture is fascinating. Lord Ashcroft's constituency polling shows Labour's share of the vote has increased. You have to assume Labour has lost some support to UKIP.

So right now they are relying on the Lib Dems turning to Labour en masse, but that is a finite resource. If the UKIP charge continues, Labour will need some former Tories to support them as well to win.

What was undoubtedly the case when I spoke to local people is that Labour's grip on its core vote has waned. I suspect this is an ongoing process, and the danger for Labour is that casting around for Lib Dem defectors (or anyone else for that matter), may only corrode faith in the party's ability to protect its core values still further.

A word about vox pops from Joey Jones:

"Vox pops" - short for vox populi, or "voice of the people" - tend to be viewed as the lowest of the low in broadcasting, the lazy option, twisting people's views to fit the ends of a journalist who asks only as many individuals as it takes to get the answer he or she wanted from the outset.

I can understand why that perception has set in, and have not been immune to it myself in recent years, but in 2014/15 I am renewing my vows - I have fallen back in love with the vox pop as an essential way of getting to grips with this most compelling of elections.

There is no polling value to vox pops; I make no claim they are scientific - I don't attempt to seek out a "representative sample". However, at the same time, I don't go to any of these constituencies with a definite preconception as to what people will say (with one exception - Exeter - and there my perception based on having been brought up in the city turned out to be wrong!). When it comes to people's views I take as I find and endeavour to present them fairly.

The vox pops in these reports should be viewed as nothing more nor less than conversations with voters. Talking to voters is what we journalists should be doing a lot of - possibly all the time, but certainly in a campaign where people are searching for alternatives to the usual political parties and the rule book is being thrown out.

There is no better way to get a feel for what is so different about this election than getting away from Westminster and asking people what they think.

:: Follow Joey Jones' journey to more of the country's marginal constituencies throughout the day on Sky News, skynews.com and our mobile apps - channels Sky 501, Virgin Media 602, Freesat 202, Freeview 132.


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